Peramalan Kebutuhan Stok Beras Di Warung Grosir Giran Menggunakan Metode Weighted Moving Average
Keywords:
Forecasting, Weighted Moving Average, Rice Stock, Mean Absolute Percentage Error, Stock ManagementAbstract
Improper rice stock management in wholesale businesses can lead to shortages or overstock that negatively impact operational efficiency. This study aims to forecast rice stock needs at Warung Grosir Giran using the Weighted Moving Average method with a weighting of 1:2:3, based on historical data from January 2025 to June 2026. A quantitative approach with time series forecasting technique was applied. Accuracy was evaluated using Mean Absolute Deviation, Mean Squared Error, and Mean Absolute Percentage Error. The results show that the forecasted rice stock requirement for July 2026 is 1,456.67 kg. The accuracy evaluation yielded a Mean Absolute Deviation of 78.22, Mean Squared Error of 9,288.15, and Mean Absolute Percentage Error of 5.71%, which is classified as highly accurate. In conclusion, the Weighted Moving Average method is suitable as a decision-support tool for rice stock management at Warung Grosir Giran.
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